Some considerations on the S & P 500 U.S. stock market allows us to understand the delicate situation in equity markets and the possible risks.
The graph displayed in the picture is wide logaritimica very strong, that because the strong compression of the price scale can bring out the real underlying trend that moves the market.
In this case we see how the growth of the U.S. stock market has been accompanied by a trend line very accurately, by none other than 1984. This trendline has never been violated, not even during the various historical stock market collapse. This leads me to believe that in future this trend line will continue to do its job support and attractor.
While history repeats itself and that no else is nothing new under the sun (WD Gann) then I must note that the S & P 500 should periodically test the line and now it's been a long long time the last test.
I also note that the index indicates a strong overbought (ie the vast distance from the trendline) and how close to the historic high of 2000 which could prove a key factor in triggering a reversal in the trend and cause a significant drop Index (my estimate is 35%).
Updated: analyzing the graph more short-term and taking into account the downward force of attraction, the index may exit the channel upward flight is located in and test the low of the downward channel. And 'action also likely pullback that the index would go up again as if to give the impression of wanting to resume growth. It will be important to monitor this movement as it could be a sign of a new bear phase for the U.S. stock market. 
0 comments:
Post a Comment